Botswana is projecting an economic revival in 2025, fueled by a recovery in the global diamond market. This comes after a difficult 2024, during which the economy shrank by 3.3% in the first three quarters—a sharper decline than the initially predicted 1.7%.
The country’s heavy dependence on diamond exports has left its economy highly sensitive to global market shifts. In 2024, weak diamond sales forced Debswana, a joint venture between Botswana and De Beers, to cut its annual production target by 6 million carats. The company ended the year with 17.9 million carats, significantly below its original goal.
However, rising mineral revenues are expected to narrow the national budget deficit from 6.75% of GDP in the 2024/25 fiscal year to 3.6% in 2025/26. The recovery is also likely to be bolstered by stronger performance in non-mining sectors, which should help stabilize the broader economy.
In February, Botswana’s finance minister will present the 2025/26 national budget, which is expected to introduce additional measures to sustain the recovery and tackle the economic challenges caused by the 2024 downturn.
The government remains hopeful that a revitalized diamond market, combined with ongoing efforts to diversify the economy, will strengthen fiscal health and pave the way for steady growth in the years ahead.
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