Lucara, the Canadian diamond mining company, has revised its revenue forecast for 2024 downward by more than 25%. The adjustment is due to weaker sales of large diamonds and a global slowdown in the rough diamond market.
The company now expects to generate between $160 million and $180 million in revenue this year, down from its previous forecast of $220 million to $250 million. Lucara reported a 27% drop in sales of its high-value “specials” (diamonds over 10.8 carats) in partnership with HB, with quarterly sales falling from $38.4 million to $27.8 million.
At its fully owned Karowe mine in Botswana, Lucara projects the sale of between 345,000 and 375,000 carats of diamonds. The Karowe mine is renowned for producing large, high-quality Type IIa diamonds.
During the quarter, Lucara sold a total of 116,221 carats, generating $44.3 million in revenue. The company also recovered two exceptional diamonds, including a 2,488-carat stone— the second-largest ever found— and a 1,094-carat diamond.
In its third-quarter update, Lucara noted that the long-term outlook for natural diamond prices remains strong, despite a decline in output from major mines. However, it acknowledged softness in the smaller diamond market, citing weak demand in Asia and growing competition from lab-grown diamonds.
Lucara emphasized that demand for larger stones, particularly those over 10.8 carats, remains robust. It also expressed optimism that ongoing G7 sanctions on Russian diamonds could provide short-term support for prices, as there is a growing focus on the provenance of diamonds.
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